3rd Best Chance: Houston Rockets
Howard
arrives in Houston with a much improved supporting cast, so if they do make a
run to the finals, he will not have to solely carry this team as much as he did
in Orlando, which bodes well for this team as his lingering back issues might
prevent him from returning to his peak 2009 form. Houston’s front office may not end up trading
Omer Asik, who becomes the best backup center in the league and capable starter
in case Howard does go down. Out of
these three teams, this Houston team has the worst chance to actually beat the
Heat since it remains to be seen how this team will gel and if Howard is done
being a crybaby, especially if Harden continues to steal the spotlight from him
on a regular basis. Just last offseason,
the Lakers (and the rest of the analysts) were enamored with their pickup of
Howard, predicting at least a trip to the Finals, if not a championship. Luckily for Rockets fans, this team has a lot
more young talent in place, and their system is going to be perfect for
Howard, and mirror the Magic’s plan of surrounding Howard with four shooters
while he has plenty of room to rove on the block. With any big time free agent signing,
however, there’s also going to be a vacuum of talent surrounding the superstars
that year and let’s take a look at Howard and Harden’s supporting cast.
While
the creative cap maneuvering of Daryl Morey aside, this roster has plenty of
holes that have been plugged by veteran free agents on minimum contracts. To open up enough cap space to sign Howard,
Morey had to unload promising big man Thomas Robinson, leaving a major hole at
the power forward slot, as they traded Patrick Patterson for Robinson to begin
with. This has led to Kevin McHale using
lineups featuring both Asik and Howard on the floor at the same time, but it
remains to be seen if that lineup could be effective against Miami, who mainly
runs the floor and plays with a power forward as their center the majority of
the time. If the big lineup cannot slow
down the pace of the Heat, look for Donatas Motiejunas and Greg Smith to see
some minutes at the power forward slot as well.
Montiejunas is a promising player out of Lithuania who is a fundamentally
sound player who is capable of hitting the three, albeit with a bit of
inconsistency. A key stretch power
forward will be critical to the success of Howard and the Rockets, as seen by
the play of Ryan Anderson when he and Howard were teammates in Orlando. With four players on the perimeter, it will
really open things up down low for Howard, who will be defended by Chris Bosh
or “Birdman” Anderson.
Obviously,
Harden blossomed into a star last season and will need to continue his great,
unselfish play for this team to be successful; he probably will have the ball
in his hands more often than Lin, their starting point guard. Lin, coming off a great month of play in New
York, parlayed that into a big contract with the Rockets, in the first year of
which he woefully underperformed. In the
playoffs, he was even taken out in favor of Patrick Beverly, who is much more
capable defender and more of a pure point guard. Chandler Parsons continues to prove people
wrong, this past year expanding his game past spot up shooter and is even
becoming a capable NBA defender. Backups
at the wing position are plentiful, but only three players will have a
legitimate impact, Ronnie Brewer, Francisco Garcia and Omri Casspi. Brewer continues to bounce from team to team,
and seems to carve out an important role of bench defender and limited scorer
at each stop. Great pickup for the
Rockets there, as well as getting Garcia back on a minimum deal and taking a
flyer out on Casspi, a former first round pick of the Sacramento Kings in 2009. Garcia brings a veteran presence to the
bench, and he is known for his tough, gritty style of play, shoots well, and
isn’t afraid to mix it up with the other team.
With Howard and Harden being something other than vocal leaders in the
locker room, this team would do well to adopt Garcia’s never say die attitude. Casspi is a typical low risk, high reward
singing by Morey, who was able to ink the veteran to a minimum salary
deal. Casspi has not yet lived up to his
potential that he had coming out of Israel, but he has all the physical tools
to be successful, he just needs some consistent minutes and a well-defined role
on this team. Still though, got to love
the move by Morey, you figure that at least two out of these three players will
pan out, and if so, look for a deep run by Houston in the playoffs. Shout out to the other two bench players on
Houston who might make a difference, former Rocket Aaron Brooks, who at some
point may take over starting duties at point guard and former Kentucky standout
Terrence Jones.
2nd Best Chance: Indiana Pacers
Larry
Bird is back in the front office resuming his role as the team President after
a year long hiatus. Bird’s replacement
during the year was Donnie Walsh and even though his vision of the Pacers
forced the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, they were
lucky to have made it that far. In the
press conference to announce his return, Bird discussed the needs for this team, specifically targeting an upgraded bench that
consistently let them down in the playoffs.
After Donnie Walsh took over for Larry last season, he quickly tried to
implement his blueprint on the roster by making several moves to sure up the
back end of the bench, as Bird had acquired all of the current starters. There was the curious Ian Mahinmi sign and
trade with Dallas that admittedly netted them a capable backup for Hibbert, but
at a ghastly overpriced contract at $16 million total over four years. Next, Walsh signed free agent Gerald Green to
a curious three year/$10 million contract, and then brings in dreadful DJ
Augustin as a backup point guard on a one year deal for $3.5 million.
Bird had been back on the job for only month at the time
of the trade, but that did not stopped him from focusing his attention to the
glaring weakness of the team, the bench.
Bird traded Gerald Green, Miles Plumlee and a lottery protected 2014
draft pick to the Phoenix Suns for forward Luis Scola. Great move for the Pacers and a no brainer
for Bird to throw in the first round pick which is projected to be a late first
rounder barring any catastrophic injuries.
So in one fell swoop, Bird is rid of the Green contract, and has a
luxury not many teams in this league have, a true post-up player coming off the
bench. Scola’s post up play will allow
the second unit for this team to play inside out, where Scola can kick out to
capable shooters like Chris Copeland or CJ Watson if he is doubled. Copeland was signed to a similar contract
that Walsh signed Green to last summer, but the difference is Copeland can
actually shoot consistently, and as a 29 year old rookie last season, it would
be hard to imagine him not making the most of his newfound opportunity. Watson is also a huge upgrade over Augustin
since he is coming from winning teams and can mesh into their style of play, as
opposed to Augustin, who struggled with the bench role as he was often the
focal point of the offense in Charlotte.
The difference between a series victory and a loss for Indiana in the
Eastern Conference Finals in ’13 was the inability of their point guards to
drive past the traps of the Heat. The
Heat play a relentless defensive style that utilizes their quickness and
length, especially in the open court, where they love to trap guards. George Hill, as beloved as he is playing for
his hometown team, did not do a good job with the press, and Augustin was
downright unplayable. Watson at the very
least will give them a veteran presence at the point and he is surely familiar
with the Heat, having just played in Chicago and Brooklyn. If Watson does not provide the answer at the
point, then look for Larry to flip the expiring contract of Danny Granger for a
capable point.
These signings, combined with the re-signed David West point to a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals, with these bench players hand selected by one of the true legends of the game to match up favorably against the Heat. The Heat has the most trouble defending Hibbert and West last year, and that trouble is going to continue as they will have to match up with another low post threat on their second unit. Birdman and Haslem are no match for Scola on the block, and unless Greg Oden can continue to prove doctors wrong, the Pacers finally look poised to take the next step by beating the Heat and going to the Finals for the second time in franchise history.
The favorite: Chicago Bulls
The
Bulls will start the season by getting back the only player not named LeBron
James to win the MVP in the last five years, as well as the youngest MVP in the
history of the league. To the woes of the front office, the Bulls
will also start the season approximately $10 million over the salary cap, as
expensive signings in the frontcourt the past couple of years have left them
without much hope to add any pieces onto the current roster. The only truly bad signing that they made
during that period was Carlos Boozer, and while he did have a good rebound year
this past season, they need to amnesty Boozer to open up cap room for another
elite player to complement Rose. Chicago
has not been open to using the amnesty provision, so at this point they appear
to be content to let the contract play out, and have Boozer’s $16.8 expiring
contract to use as a trade chip next season.
Chicago appears to have no intentions to sign Luol Deng’s to a
multi-year extension as he is in his last year of his expiring contract that
pays him $14.3 million this season. This
has to be a tough pill to swallow for Deng, who has seen hometown extensions
for Rose, Noah and Gibson in consecutive offseason. The best bet for Chicago would be to stand
pat with this lineup, and then try to amnesty Boozer at the end of the year to
open up cap space to sign Deng. If the
Bulls do not go that route and truly have no intentions of re-signing Deng,
they may try to move him at the trading deadline for additional frontcourt
depth, with for LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love as potential mid-season
targets.
The only reason Chicago’s front office has
not extended Deng is the emergence of Jimmy “Buckets” Butler, who plays the
same position as Deng, is also a lockdown defender, is four years younger, and
his salary this year is at approx. 1/14 of the cost at just over $1.1
million. If Marquis Teague can develop
into a serviceable backup point guard by the trading deadline, the Bulls could
also package Kirk Hinrich in the trade with Deng, as Hinrich is making just
over $4 million this season on an expiring contract as well. If Teague does not develop as planned, the
Bulls have also signed Mike James, who is already a capable backup and he
proved last season in Dallas that he can still belongs in the league. Likely, Chicago does not make a move, but
remember if they do not, they will have to pay the luxury tax for the second
time ever as a franchise (first paid last season), and this year’s bill would
be much worse at around $6.5 million if they are unable to shed any salary
before then. Chicago has the best bet to
beat the Heat as their biggest strengths are inversely Miami’s biggest
weaknesses. Miami does not have a point
guard on the roster that is capable of guarding Rose, so they will be forced to
put LeBron on him early and often, if not for the entire series. On the other end of the floor, Rose can take
a breather on the defensive end, solely having to guard Mario Chalmers or
Norris Cole. Miami’s other glaring
weakness is their frontcourt, although bolstered by the mid-season signing of Birdman,
Noah will have his way on the inside, often matching up with Bosh. Although clearly a reclamation project, Riley
knew that this team really would benefit from a healthy Greg Oden to take the burden
off of Bosh against Indiana and Chicago especially. Let’s take a look at the starting five for
the Bulls as well as the two first players off the bench:
-
Projected
starting 5
o
PG: Derrick Rose
– vertical increased from 37 to 42 post surgery
o
SG: Jimmy Butler –
could start or come off bench, defend Wade or LeBron
o
SF: Luol Deng –
primary LeBron defender, jack of all trades
o
PF: Carlos Boozer
– patented 18-foot jumper, rebounding
o
C: Joakim Noah –
Heart and soul of this defense, he always comes to play against the Heat
Key
Reserves
o
PF: Taj Gibson –
more athletic than Boozer, his offense is coming along too
o
SG: Mike Dunleavy
– he’s going to enjoy playing on a winner and brings a basketball IQ so high,
he could only be a coach’s son
If
there was an award for the greatest non-move at the trading deadline, the Bulls
would have won easily last season.
Remember Derrick Rose’s brother, Reggie, came out and said his brother
should not rush back since the Bulls were not going to trade for J.J. Redick
last season at the deadline. Redick was
shipped to the Bucks for a good young piece in Tobias Harris, and then the
Bucks failed to re-sign Redick, who is going to be making at least $6.5 million
per year on his new contract, salary cap space that the Bulls knew they didn’t
have. Also, the trade would have cost
them at least one young piece such as Butler or a first round pick in order for
Orlando to pull the trigger on the move.
So if the Bulls had tried to appease the Rose family, they would have
given up young talent and or picks, then they still would have had to resign
Redick, who became a free agent at the end of the season. This is where the Mike Dunleavy signing makes
the most sense; they signed him to a good value contract at 2 years for $6
million total, netting the Bulls Dunleavy for two seasons, still paying him
less money than Redick makes in one year.
Overall,
the Bulls have the best shot to beat the Heat as their roster is currently constructed,
and when the trading deadline hits they will know even more about the players
on the team, and with expiring contracts in hand they have the flexibility to
make a move to better position themselves past Miami. A healthy Rose is unquestionably the key to
the series against the Heat, and after seeing his improved shooting to go along
with his healthy leg, it looks like LeBron will have to guard Rose in any
playoff matchup with the Heat, which opens up all kinds of possibilities for
Chicago. Don’t forget, one year ago
without Rose, the Bulls were still able to win a game against the Heat, no
small feat when the Bulls best player that day was Nate Robinson. Seeding will also be particularly important
for the Pacers and the Bulls, who surely will not want to square off against
each other in a dogfight before facing Miami.
King James, your throne is safe for now, but the Bulls are coming for
you. The only difference this time is
that they finally will have enough firepower.
