Ryan McDonough and the NBA Version of Moneyball

          Ryan McDonough is the new General Manager of the Phoenix Suns, a team that desperately needs to rebuild after jettisoning their franchise point guard to the Los Angeles Lakers last summer and they have yet to forge a new team identity.  It used to be the run and gun Suns of the west, led by former back to back MVP Steve Nash.  With the twilight of his career always imminent due to severe back concerns, for years the Suns tried to surround Nash with enough talent to compete for a championship, but ill-fated pairings with Shaquille O’Neal and Amarè Stoudemire netted them zero championships and since Nash traded, there has not been any visible plan to build a competitive team in Phoenix.

            After Nash left, the Suns quickly signed promising young point guard Goran Dragic, which would have been a great move, had they not kicked him to the curb the year before, trading him to Houston at the trading deadline.  Then, the Suns went after complementary wing players from Minnesota, Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson.  One year later and only Dragic remains on the roster, yet they are still paying Beasley not to play for them.  Next up, the Suns then acquire coveted point guard Eric Bledsoe from the Clippers in a deal where they ship out Jared Dudley.  Bledsoe is certainly a promising young player, even if there are questions about his ability to run a team full time, but they already have Dragic at that position, so the Suns will be asking them to share the ball and play together, which will be feast or famine, but certainly not anywhere in between.  The main issue with the Bledsoe trade is that they did not sign him to an extension, so at the end of the season he will be a restricted free agent and someone will likely offer him a front or back loaded offer sheet that the Suns could match, but it would mess up their cap space.  It would be hard to imagine that Bledsoe would have turned down a contract extension in the $8-11 million per year offer, which might seem a bit high now, but this will seem very reasonable when he is on the open market this summer.

            So, without any expectations for this year’s team, McDonough is content to acquire attractive young pieces to see who he can grab in the 2014 draft and the players currently on the roster who will be the best complimentary player to the draftees will be retained.  So far Ryan has been extremely successful in the pursuit of highly coveted 2014 draft picks, potentially owning four top 15 picks in the draft that they could package together to make a real splash by potentially being able to get two top 5 picks.  There could be as many as eight potential all stars in this draft class, and if the Suns were able to get an Andrew Wiggins or a Jabari Parker, they have the roster flexibility to build around these players right away, and also being bad enough that player’s rookie year to also get a high lottery pick in the 2015 draft.  This has been the model that smaller market franchises have used since they saw what Sam Presti was able to do in Oklahoma City after being tied to a more conservative budget after the franchise relocated from the larger market of Seattle.  McDonough’s legacy is going to be always linked to the players he selects in the draft next year, and he should be in good position to do so, having worked his way up from video coordinator to assistant GM with the Boston Celtics in 2010 at the impressive age of 30.  

            Danny Ainge rebuilt the Celtics in a traditional way in 2007, acquiring a couple veterans for young players and draft picks.  This is going to be the first time that Ainge is going to have to build through the draft, as this time he was the one who traded the veteran talent for young players and a plethora of draft picks.  Just because this is the first time that Ainge has been tasked with this, does not mean that he has not been prepared for this, with rumors circulating of trades of members of the big three during the trade deadline in 2011, when Ray Allen was actively shopped with the Celtics underperforming during the first half of the season.  There have been countless other rumors of failed Pierce and Garnett trades as well, with Ainge ultra-aware of the need to get value for his veterans before while also ensuring that they would get one last shot to compete for a championship.  With all these scenarios being tossed around in the front office in Boston, it’s no surprise that new age GM Daryl Morey came from Boston as well and has had success without rebuilding through many creative trades and draft picks.  McDonough is taking the surest bet right now, taking over a team that already had no hope of contending, he has acquired four first round draft picks in next year’s draft, while maintaining salary cap flexibility as well.

            With a family background in sports, Ryan is no stranger to the business as well as the many ideas floated around by sportswriters, particularly his father’s.  Ryan’s father was famed Boston Globe columnist Wil McDonough, and his brother Sean McDonough is a household voice, if not a household name, who currently broadcasts college football, and was the formed voice of the Boston Red Sox.  Ryan’s other brother, Terry, works in the NFL in player personnel decisions, covering almost all of the major sports within the McDonough family.  Ryan himself majored in Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of North Carolina, no doubt intending to follow in his father’s footsteps before accepting a position with the Celtics’ front office.  With Morey and McDonough coming out of the front office, Danny Ainge has become the NBA version of Billy Beane, teaching his workers the new era of working the front office in the league, acquiring young talent with draft picks to develop or include in future blockbuster trades.  This is the new model of the league, and while Ainge started the trend, Sam Presti is looked to as the best example due to the success he had in the front office with the Thunder, drafting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, who made up three out of the best five players in the entire league.  Presti needs to be given credit where it’s due, and he does not get any for taking Durant, who was a no brainer after the Blazers selected Greg Oden first overall.  Presti’s genius comes with the Westbrook drafting, who people said that they took him way too high and he would not be able to convert from shooting guard to playing point guard in the league.  James Harden was a heralded player at Arizona State, but no one ever really thought he would turn into the player he has become today on the Rockets, first being able to step out of the shadows into a leading man role, and finding a lot of success. With the Thunder as the new model for rebuilding teams to follow, it is increasingly harder to try and build this way, due to the nature of the new collective bargaining agreement.  The new CBA puts a cap on the limit of draft pick salaries, in the same way the CBA in the NFL was revised a couple years ago.  This makes draft picks much more attractive to all the teams with the restrictive nature of the new salary cap, which penalizes teams over the cap with sever luxury tax penalties.  With a first round draft pick, the player is locked up on rookie scale wages for a solid four years, with the potential to sign and extension or issue a qualifying offer at that time, making the player a restricted free agent, meaning the team he is on has a chance to match any offer by another team.  Also new in the CBA are monetary incentives to stay with the current team, who can offer another year and millions more dollars to their hometown star than another team could in free agency.  This will not always work, as in the case of Dwight Howard this summer, but the majority of the time, it should be enough to sweeten the pot for all but the top tier superstars who can potentially make up for the lost guaranteed salary in endorsement opportunities in larger markets.   Bottom line is, it is harder than ever to amass draft picks, and McDonough has succeeded in the best draft class in a decade.

            The most valuable draft pick the Suns have will most likely be their own, where they have a good chance to compete with the worst teams in the league for the most ping pong balls in the tank for Wiggins.  They also have a top 12 pick from Washington in the Marcin Gortat trade, a top 13 protected pick from Minnesota from the Robin Lopez trade a couple years ago, and a lottery protected pick from the Pacers.  Most likely scenario, they have the pick from Washington and the Pacers, which is looking like it will be toward the end of the first round.  If they have luck with their own pick, they can select whichever player is highest on their board, see how the rest of the roster will mesh, and plug holes with the other picks, or try and make a splash and trade the picks to select again in the top five or ten, depending on how the lottery plays out.  In the NBA, potential is valued perhaps more than any other league, and although Ryan McDonough is showing great potential, his legacy in Phoenix rests on the bounces of ping pong balls to determine the most important player they draft in 2014, and what direction this franchise is going to take in the foreseeable future.

Who Can Dethrone King James?

          If you missed all the trades and signings of this past NBA offseason, there are only three key moves that stand in the way of a three-peat: Howard to Houston, Rose’s return and the Pacers trade for Luis Scola.  These three teams are the only teams that have a legitimate shot to beat the Heat in a seven game series (barring injuries), and this season especially we know that the title goes through Miami, as LeBron is set to become a free agent at the end of the year, and it looks doubtful that he will stay in Miami between a hobbled sidekick in Wade and Bosh’s disappearing act in big games.  Let’s first take a look at the team that is the greatest unknown entering the season, the Houston Rockets, who are basically an upgraded version of the 2009 Orlando Magic team that Howard carried all the way to the Finals aided by a plethora of three point shooters.  

3^rd Best Chance: Houston Rockets

Howard arrives in Houston with a much improved supporting cast, so if they do make a run to the finals, he will not have to solely carry this team as much as he did in Orlando, which bodes well for this team as his lingering back issues might prevent him from returning to his peak 2009 form.  Houston’s front office may not end up trading Omer Asik, who becomes the best backup center in the league and capable starter in case Howard does go down.  Out of these three teams, this Houston team has the worst chance to actually beat the Heat since it remains to be seen how this team will gel and if Howard is done being a crybaby, especially if Harden continues to steal the spotlight from him on a regular basis.  Just last offseason, the Lakers (and the rest of the analysts) were enamored with their pickup of Howard, predicting at least a trip to the Finals, if not a championship.  Luckily for Rockets fans, this team has a lot more young talent in place, and their system is going to be perfect for Howard, and mirror the Magic’s plan of surrounding Howard with four shooters while he has plenty of room to rove on the block.  With any big time free agent signing, however, there’s also going to be a vacuum of talent surrounding the superstars that year and let’s take a look at Howard and Harden’s supporting cast.

While the creative cap maneuvering of Daryl Morey aside, this roster has plenty of holes that have been plugged by veteran free agents on minimum contracts.  To open up enough cap space to sign Howard, Morey had to unload promising big man Thomas Robinson, leaving a major hole at the power forward slot, as they traded Patrick Patterson for Robinson to begin with.  This has led to Kevin McHale using lineups featuring both Asik and Howard on the floor at the same time, but it remains to be seen if that lineup could be effective against Miami, who mainly runs the floor and plays with a power forward as their center the majority of the time.  If the big lineup cannot slow down the pace of the Heat, look for Donatas Motiejunas and Greg Smith to see some minutes at the power forward slot as well.  Montiejunas is a promising player out of Lithuania who is a fundamentally sound player who is capable of hitting the three, albeit with a bit of inconsistency.  A key stretch power forward will be critical to the success of Howard and the Rockets, as seen by the play of Ryan Anderson when he and Howard were teammates in Orlando.  With four players on the perimeter, it will really open things up down low for Howard, who will be defended by Chris Bosh or “Birdman” Anderson.  

Obviously, Harden blossomed into a star last season and will need to continue his great, unselfish play for this team to be successful; he probably will have the ball in his hands more often than Lin, their starting point guard.  Lin, coming off a great month of play in New York, parlayed that into a big contract with the Rockets, in the first year of which he woefully underperformed.  In the playoffs, he was even taken out in favor of Patrick Beverly, who is much more capable defender and more of a pure point guard.  Chandler Parsons continues to prove people wrong, this past year expanding his game past spot up shooter and is even becoming a capable NBA defender.  Backups at the wing position are plentiful, but only three players will have a legitimate impact, Ronnie Brewer, Francisco Garcia and Omri Casspi.  Brewer continues to bounce from team to team, and seems to carve out an important role of bench defender and limited scorer at each stop.  Great pickup for the Rockets there, as well as getting Garcia back on a minimum deal and taking a flyer out on Casspi, a former first round pick of the Sacramento Kings in 2009.  Garcia brings a veteran presence to the bench, and he is known for his tough, gritty style of play, shoots well, and isn’t afraid to mix it up with the other team.  With Howard and Harden being something other than vocal leaders in the locker room, this team would do well to adopt Garcia’s never say die attitude.  Casspi is a typical low risk, high reward singing by Morey, who was able to ink the veteran to a minimum salary deal.  Casspi has not yet lived up to his potential that he had coming out of Israel, but he has all the physical tools to be successful, he just needs some consistent minutes and a well-defined role on this team.  Still though, got to love the move by Morey, you figure that at least two out of these three players will pan out, and if so, look for a deep run by Houston in the playoffs.  Shout out to the other two bench players on Houston who might make a difference, former Rocket Aaron Brooks, who at some point may take over starting duties at point guard and former Kentucky standout Terrence Jones.

2nd Best Chance: Indiana Pacers

Larry Bird is back in the front office resuming his role as the team President after a year long hiatus.  Bird’s replacement during the year was Donnie Walsh and even though his vision of the Pacers forced the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, they were lucky to have made it that far.  In the press conference to announce his return, Bird discussed the needs for this team, specifically targeting an upgraded bench that consistently let them down in the playoffs.  After Donnie Walsh took over for Larry last season, he quickly tried to implement his blueprint on the roster by making several moves to sure up the back end of the bench, as Bird had acquired all of the current starters.  There was the curious Ian Mahinmi sign and trade with Dallas that admittedly netted them a capable backup for Hibbert, but at a ghastly overpriced contract at $16 million total over four years.  Next, Walsh signed free agent Gerald Green to a curious three year/$10 million contract, and then brings in dreadful DJ Augustin as a backup point guard on a one year deal for $3.5 million.  

            Bird had been back on the job for only month at the time of the trade, but that did not stopped him from focusing his attention to the glaring weakness of the team, the bench.  Bird traded Gerald Green, Miles Plumlee and a lottery protected 2014 draft pick to the Phoenix Suns for forward Luis Scola.  Great move for the Pacers and a no brainer for Bird to throw in the first round pick which is projected to be a late first rounder barring any catastrophic injuries.  So in one fell swoop, Bird is rid of the Green contract, and has a luxury not many teams in this league have, a true post-up player coming off the bench.  Scola’s post up play will allow the second unit for this team to play inside out, where Scola can kick out to capable shooters like Chris Copeland or CJ Watson if he is doubled.  Copeland was signed to a similar contract that Walsh signed Green to last summer, but the difference is Copeland can actually shoot consistently, and as a 29 year old rookie last season, it would be hard to imagine him not making the most of his newfound opportunity.  Watson is also a huge upgrade over Augustin since he is coming from winning teams and can mesh into their style of play, as opposed to Augustin, who struggled with the bench role as he was often the focal point of the offense in Charlotte.  The difference between a series victory and a loss for Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals in ’13 was the inability of their point guards to drive past the traps of the Heat.  The Heat play a relentless defensive style that utilizes their quickness and length, especially in the open court, where they love to trap guards.  George Hill, as beloved as he is playing for his hometown team, did not do a good job with the press, and Augustin was downright unplayable.  Watson at the very least will give them a veteran presence at the point and he is surely familiar with the Heat, having just played in Chicago and Brooklyn.  If Watson does not provide the answer at the point, then look for Larry to flip the expiring contract of Danny Granger for a capable point.

            These signings, combined with the re-signed David West point to a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals, with these bench players hand selected by one of the true legends of the game to match up favorably against the Heat.  The Heat has the most trouble defending Hibbert and West last year, and that trouble is going to continue as they will have to match up with another low post threat on their second unit.  Birdman and Haslem are no match for Scola on the block, and unless Greg Oden can continue to prove doctors wrong, the Pacers finally look poised to take the next step by beating the Heat and going to the Finals for the second time in franchise history.

The favorite: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls will start the season by getting back the only player not named LeBron James to win the MVP in the last five years, as well as the youngest MVP in the history of the league.  To the woes of the front office, the Bulls will also start the season approximately $10 million over the salary cap, as expensive signings in the frontcourt the past couple of years have left them without much hope to add any pieces onto the current roster.  The only truly bad signing that they made during that period was Carlos Boozer, and while he did have a good rebound year this past season, they need to amnesty Boozer to open up cap room for another elite player to complement Rose.  Chicago has not been open to using the amnesty provision, so at this point they appear to be content to let the contract play out, and have Boozer’s $16.8 expiring contract to use as a trade chip next season.  Chicago appears to have no intentions to sign Luol Deng’s to a multi-year extension as he is in his last year of his expiring contract that pays him $14.3 million this season.  This has to be a tough pill to swallow for Deng, who has seen hometown extensions for Rose, Noah and Gibson in consecutive offseason.  The best bet for Chicago would be to stand pat with this lineup, and then try to amnesty Boozer at the end of the year to open up cap space to sign Deng.  If the Bulls do not go that route and truly have no intentions of re-signing Deng, they may try to move him at the trading deadline for additional frontcourt depth, with for LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love as potential mid-season targets.  

      The only reason Chicago’s front office has not extended Deng is the emergence of Jimmy “Buckets” Butler, who plays the same position as Deng, is also a lockdown defender, is four years younger, and his salary this year is at approx. 1/14 of the cost at just over $1.1 million.  If Marquis Teague can develop into a serviceable backup point guard by the trading deadline, the Bulls could also package Kirk Hinrich in the trade with Deng, as Hinrich is making just over $4 million this season on an expiring contract as well.  If Teague does not develop as planned, the Bulls have also signed Mike James, who is already a capable backup and he proved last season in Dallas that he can still belongs in the league.  Likely, Chicago does not make a move, but remember if they do not, they will have to pay the luxury tax for the second time ever as a franchise (first paid last season), and this year’s bill would be much worse at around $6.5 million if they are unable to shed any salary before then.  Chicago has the best bet to beat the Heat as their biggest strengths are inversely Miami’s biggest weaknesses.  Miami does not have a point guard on the roster that is capable of guarding Rose, so they will be forced to put LeBron on him early and often, if not for the entire series.  On the other end of the floor, Rose can take a breather on the defensive end, solely having to guard Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole.  Miami’s other glaring weakness is their frontcourt, although bolstered by the mid-season signing of Birdman, Noah will have his way on the inside, often matching up with Bosh.  Although clearly a reclamation project, Riley knew that this team really would benefit from a healthy Greg Oden to take the burden off of Bosh against Indiana and Chicago especially.  Let’s take a look at the starting five for the Bulls as well as the two first players off the bench:

-         

 Projected starting 5

o   PG: Derrick Rose – vertical increased from 37 to 42 post surgery

o   SG: Jimmy Butler – could start or come off bench, defend Wade or LeBron

o   SF: Luol Deng – primary LeBron defender, jack of all trades

o   PF: Carlos Boozer – patented 18-foot jumper, rebounding

o   C: Joakim Noah – Heart and soul of this defense, he always comes to play against the Heat

Key Reserves

o   PF: Taj Gibson – more athletic than Boozer, his offense is coming along too

o   SG: Mike Dunleavy – he’s going to enjoy playing on a winner and brings a basketball IQ so high, he could only be a coach’s son

If there was an award for the greatest non-move at the trading deadline, the Bulls would have won easily last season.  Remember Derrick Rose’s brother, Reggie, came out and said his brother should not rush back since the Bulls were not going to trade for J.J. Redick last season at the deadline.  Redick was shipped to the Bucks for a good young piece in Tobias Harris, and then the Bucks failed to re-sign Redick, who is going to be making at least $6.5 million per year on his new contract, salary cap space that the Bulls knew they didn’t have.  Also, the trade would have cost them at least one young piece such as Butler or a first round pick in order for Orlando to pull the trigger on the move.  So if the Bulls had tried to appease the Rose family, they would have given up young talent and or picks, then they still would have had to resign Redick, who became a free agent at the end of the season.  This is where the Mike Dunleavy signing makes the most sense; they signed him to a good value contract at 2 years for $6 million total, netting the Bulls Dunleavy for two seasons, still paying him less money than Redick makes in one year. 

Overall, the Bulls have the best shot to beat the Heat as their roster is currently constructed, and when the trading deadline hits they will know even more about the players on the team, and with expiring contracts in hand they have the flexibility to make a move to better position themselves past Miami.  A healthy Rose is unquestionably the key to the series against the Heat, and after seeing his improved shooting to go along with his healthy leg, it looks like LeBron will have to guard Rose in any playoff matchup with the Heat, which opens up all kinds of possibilities for Chicago.  Don’t forget, one year ago without Rose, the Bulls were still able to win a game against the Heat, no small feat when the Bulls best player that day was Nate Robinson.  Seeding will also be particularly important for the Pacers and the Bulls, who surely will not want to square off against each other in a dogfight before facing Miami.  King James, your throne is safe for now, but the Bulls are coming for you.  The only difference this time is that they finally will have enough firepower.

NFL Week 6 Recap (6-8) this week (12-15) overall

A rough week 6, I felt pretty good with the picks going into this week, and there were a couple of surprises, and at this point, the records of the teams are starting to show what they are really made of, so it should be a little bit easier to pick the winners moving forward.  The biggest surprise of the week was the New England Patriots stunning last second comeback against the previously undefeated New Orleans Saints.  The Saints executed poorly down the stretch after Brees successfully completed a third and twenty to Kenny Still for a touchdown.  After this play, the Patriots got the ball back and Brady threw an interception, which the Saints turned into a field goal, increasing the lead to 27-23.  The Patriots got the ball back, turned it over on downs, and then used all their timeouts and got the ball back again late.  Brady was not going to be denied on a third attempt to win the game, finding Thompkins in the back corner of the end zone for a 17 yard touchdown.

                In a more interesting Thursday night game than anticipated, the Giants managed to cover the spread against the Bears, and they even had a chance to win at the end of the game, despite Eli Manning continuing to turn the ball over at an alarming rate that finds head Tom Coughlin’s blood pressure rising by the second.  Somehow the Bengals and Bills game went to OT, and news after the game has Thad Lewis injured, potentially joining E.J. Manuel on the sidelines after a promising performance.  The Bengals got a good showing from Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, but their defense waned after allowing a mere six points to the Patriots last week.  This Cincinnati team remains greatly unknown as they seem to play to their level of competition.  Lions mopped up the Browns with a subpar performance from Megatron, and what you would expect from Brandon Weeden, who threw two touchdowns but also two picks.

                The Raiders got off to a hot start against the Chiefs, going up 7-0 early on a Pryor to Moore hookup.  After this, the Chiefs defense shut the door with ten sacks and their offense poured in 24 unanswered points, keeping Andy Reid’s new team undefeated.  Cam Newton continues the trend of going off pretty much every other week, posting two games with four TDs and two duds.  Carolina must hope to keep their production up from their receivers, especially their number two Brandon Lafell to try and keep double teams off of veteran Steve Smith.  The Pittsburgh Steelers passing game got it going against the Jets, as the Jets failed to do much against this Steelers defense.  Pretty vanilla game overall, and if Geno Smith did nothing to stand out in this one, it’s hard to imagine him as the true long term answer for the Jets at the quarterback position.

                Nick Foles played his ass off and is forcing Chip Kelly to take a long look at him to be the starter even with Vick healthy.  Tampa’s defense came in ranked very highly, so that makes the show Foles put on all that more impressive.  Mike Glennon played pretty well too, hooking up with Vincent Jackson early and often, but it did not end up being enough as Doug Martin could not get it going consistently.  The Packers held on to beat the Ravens, as this one was scoreless for a while as Rodgers targets kept getting hurt.  A late strike to Jordy Nelson put this game out of reach and was impressive for Green Bay to escape with a win despite those costly injuries.  The Jaguars covered the spread and then some against the Broncos as Peyton Manning easily had his worst game of the season in a classic look ahead game as Manning will be headed back to his old stomping grounds next week in a showdown with his heir apparent, Andrew Luck.  Nevertheless, the Broncos come out with a win, keeping them undefeated as Manning will roll into Indianapolis with a chip on his should and something to prove to the second year Luck.  Seahawks failed to cover against the Titans in a battle of two anemic offenses.  The 49ers just barely covered the spread against the Cardinals, and they continue to keep getting better and their defense continues to play well.  Cowboys walked over Washington in a game that was a surprise to no one except a few nostalgic Washington fans who seem to think that the old RG3 from last year will just show up one of these weeks.  Still not happening folks, Washington needs to take a long hard look at the Derrick Rose injury in Chicago for how they should be treating their franchise players.

                Colts and Bolts lace them up tonight to battle on Monday night football.  I still like the Colts to take this one down, as San Diego’s play has been so up and down this year, coming off a loss to the Raiders.  The Colts victory against the Seahawks really showed me something and Luck continues to play better than his years.  Colts need to take this one down as they will be in trouble in they look ahead to the Broncos and drop this game here, already having to prepare for Denver this Sunday night.

Results

L Bears over Giants (didn’t cover)

L Bengals over Bills (didn’t cover)

W Lions over Browns

L Chiefs over Raiders (didn’t cover)

L Panthers over Vikings

L Steelers over Jets

W Eagles over Bucs

W Packers over Ravens

W Rams over Texans

W Jaguars over Broncos

L Seahawks over Titans (didn’t cover)

L Patriots over Saints

L 49ers over Cardinals

W Cowboys over Redskins

NFL Week 6 Picks

By Alex Newcomer

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+7.5) - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

                Buffalo has a couple things working against them this Sunday.  First, they will be handing the keys of the offense to a fourth year quarterback out of Duke, Thad Lewis, who will be making his second career start against a Mike Sherman led Bengals eighth ranked defense that did not allow a touchdown last week against the mighty Patriots.  The Bills were forced to turn to Lewis after undrafted free agent rookie quarterback Jeff Tuel failed to complete a pass over 13 yards in relief of E.J. Manuel this past Thursday against the Browns.   Look for C.J. Spiller to finally have a big day as the first option in the read with Lewis.  Spiller is the much more explosive back compared to Fred Jackson’s running style and Spiller has finally earned himself a start by busting a forty yarder to the house last week.  Jackson has held him off thus far, but Spiller’s big play ability will keep him on the bench for the majority of the game.  If Buffalo can successfully run the read option and Lewis can pull it down for some crucial yardage, Buffalo has a chance, but if the play fakes don’t work early it could be a long day against these Bengal linebackers.  Utilizing the read option may be the best option for the personnel of this team as the offensive line has allowed 15 total sacks, the 7^th most sacks allowed in the league and those came with Manuel at the helm, an above athlete at the worst playing the quarterback position, suggesting their line is even worse than their stats.

The Bengals come in with the 25^th ranked offense, averaging a mere 18.8 points per game.  On the other side of the ball Buffalo has given up 26 points per game, tenth most in the league.  The tight end position for Cincinnati is going to be crucial with rookie Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham coming in with the 13^th and 15^th most receiving yards for tight ends, but it’s going to be their blocking is going to be the key to opening up the rushing attack featuring BenJarvus Green-Ellis with rookie second rounder Giovanni Bernard as the change of pace back.  Buffalo has a strong front seven anchored by rookie linebacker Kiko Alanso who has been flying around out there, sprung by Mario and Kyle Williams.  If these two highly touted tight ends are able to block against this front seven, they will open themselves up later in the game for play action along with their All-Pro receiver A.J. Green who is due for a breakout performance coming off of a relatively slow start follow up to last year’s torrid campaign.

Pick: Cincinnati

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+3) - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

                Detriot has been an inconsistent team so far this year, dealing with injuries to Bush and Johnson.  I do not expect them to find a major challenge with the Browns, but this game will be very close, especially if Megtron does not play.  Weeden’s play off the bench last week was impressive as he looked more like the guy who was throwing to Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State, not the dud who has shown up to don the uniform in Cleveland.  In all fairness, there’s no way Weeden gets drafted in the first round if he did not play with Blackmon, especially being over half a decade older than the rest of the prospects at twenty eight.  Even after Weeden came back from injury he lost his job to Brian Hoyer, who was originally signed into the league as an undrafted free agent.

                Without Johnson, the Lions will be forced to run the ball a bit more than they would like with Reggie Bush, who should also be used in a variety of screens.  The Browns having just completed a trade to the Colts for their feature back Trent Richardson, unsurprisingly find themselves with a lack of depth at the running back position and signed free agent Willis McGahee to join the underwhelming rotation of Bobby Rainey and Fozzy Whittaker.  With the Lions’ edge on the ground they will be able to manage the clock to limit possessions and try to capitalize in the red zone without their number one target.  Lions should be able to pull this one out as it would take a turnover-free inspired performance from Brandon Weeden, who unfortunately is tough to bet on without Blackmon, no offense to Josh Gordon.

Pick: Detroit

Oakland Raiders (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

                The Kansas City Chiefs begin the season undefeated and have been beating their opponents by an average of 14 points per game but if you don’t count the blowout wins against the Giants and Jaguars, they have only been winning by 6 points per game on average against the likes Eagles, Cowboys and Titans, one potential playoff team between the three of them.  The Chiefs also did not have a clean win against the Titans last week, who were without their starter Jake Locker, needing special teams help to edge the Titans despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s best effort to hand them the game with a two turnover performance.

                The Oakland Raiders on the other hand, come in red hot off their rivalry win against the San Diego Chargers this past late Sunday night on the only remaining baseball converted football field, utilizing a few home field tricks including field goals of forty seven and fifty yards from the infield dirt by drunken boxer turned kicker Sebastian Janikowski.  Pryor looks a man possessed by someone who can actually play quarterback and he does have speedy receivers on the outside to make use of, as long as he keeps his eyes downfield and continues to learn that the most valuable scrambling always takes place behind the line of scrimmage, the Raiders will keep this one within ten.

Pick: Oakland

Carolina Panthers (+3) at Minnesota Vikings - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

                If the Carolina Panthers have been anything this season, it has been consistent unreliability, no matter which side of the ball.  Cam Newton continues to puzzle everyone with his peaks and valleys from week to week, since they all know the Panthers can only go as far as Newton will take them.  Either way this game is not about Carolina.  This one takes the form of a game that is for Adrian Peterson’s son as he is going to just run all over the field and take out all of his emotions against the Panther defense.  Matt Cassel will get his second start of the season for the Vikings, last time hooking up with Greg Jennings for a couple touchdowns, including a seventy yarder.  Carolina may have no choice but to pack the box with eight defenders, and play action could inflict large chunks of yardage over the middle.  Vikings win easy, the spread is only as close as it is since everyone knows Newton could just decide to go off, and if he went all out, no defense in the league could stop him.

Pick: Minnesota

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at New York Jets - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

                The strength of this New York Jets team is their defensive line, while the glaring weakness for this Steelers weakness is their offensive line play, highlighted by the loss of All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey.  New York has improved the normal backbone of any Rex Ryan team, the defensive line, where rookie Sheldon Richardson from Missouri is playing Pro-Bowl caliber ball at the defense end position opposite third year player Muhammed Wilkerson out of Temple.  This game will not be a blowout by any means, and the Steelers could potentially win if the line is able to give ben enough time to find solid wide outs Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, not to mention Ben’s old favorite target Heath Miller at tight end.  Geno Smith continues to progress at a rapid pace from game to game and even if he regresses a little bit this week, they should still haven enough to get the victory provided they take care of the football.

Pick: New York Jets

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

                It doesn’t matter who is starting for Philly, either QB is deadly in that system throwing to Jackson, in the same backfield as McCoy, although it looks like Nick Foles is going to start.  Tampa Bay’s defense has been touted this year, but they are going to have to be on the field for an awful lot of the game with the Eagles defense stacking the box and daring Mike Glennon to try and burn them over the top.  Giving up just two point, this Eagles team is my lock of the week right here, no further explanation needed.

Pick: Philadelphia

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3) - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

I bet this one will be closer than expected, but have to go with Green Bay due to the fact that even if Baltimore’s defense doesn’t make any mistakes, their offense (a la Joe Flacco) will and turn the ball over at a costly time.  As long as Green Bay continues to execute above the league average in the red zone (coming into the game tied for 13^th) they should be able to put this one out of reach of the Raven’s feeble offense and cover those three points on the road.  Rodgers continues to spread the ball out week to week, and will find resistance in this talented Ravens secondary, but he has enough weapons now to strictly exploit mismatches, so wherever the linebackers may be covering the tights ends or running backs, look for Rodgers to go there early and often, and not miss.

Pick: Green Bay

St. Louis Rams (+9) at Houston Texans - Sun, Oct 13, 1:00 PM ET

Have to take St. Louis here, with this amount of points and going up against the lowly Texans with Matt Schaub hoping woefully not to continue his NFL record 4 game pick-six consecutive game streak.  I do expect the Texans to be able to win this game, but this one is going to be played out between the ears of Schaub long before this one gets started.  If he blows it this week and throws another pick six, he is out now, and might never be able to start in the NFL ever again.  This has to be weighing deeply on Schaub, who has always been doubted and now with his confidence waning, he likely has begun to question himself.  Last week with the Texans only able to must three points on offense, look for them to go to Foster to try and take some of the game off the shoulders of Schaub.  The Texans will win, but not by double digits.

Pick: St. Louis

Jacksonville Jaguars (+27) at Denver Broncos - Sun, Oct 13, 4:05 PM ET

Can’t give Denver 27 points, no matter how tempting due to how poorly their defense played last week.  Jacksonville actually put some points up against St. Louis, and now that Henne’s the full time quarterback, he and Blackmon should hook up for at least one long score, if the Jaguars aren’t going to throw the long ball they might as well just go home.  I heard on ESPN that this is the NFL record for the most points in a spread, and even though that’s for a good reason, Gabbert will not be starting and the Broncos will let in at least a couple of touchdowns, and don’t cover.

Pick: Jacksonville

Tennessee Titans (+14) at Seattle Seahawks - Sun, Oct 13, 4:05 PM ET

This is a lot of points for the Titans to receive, but they are coming in starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is known for turning the ball over consistently throughout his time starting in the league.  The Seahawks will enjoy advantages on the special teams and their strong secondary, who is without a strong number one receiver, and most of Seattle’s defensive backs already hold the size advantage with their matchups.  Fitzpatrick’s gunslinger like mentality that has kept him in the league thus far is not a good match with this Seattle defense, and it would not surprise me to see him put up at least three picks, with one taken back to the house to help cover that spread.

Pick: Seattle

New Orleans Saints (+1) at New England Patriots - Sun, Oct 13, 4:25 PM ET

                New Orleans is ecstatic to have head coach Sean Payton back and he is not letting them down with all kinds of schemes that are keeping defenses on their toes, and off of star quarterback Drew Brees.  With the Patriots coming off a woeful performance against the Bengals, I can’t see them matching up with the Saints in a shootout.  In what was supposed to be the battle of the top two tight ends in the game with the return of Gronkowski, it will just be Graham going up and down the field at a record breaking pace this Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans

Arizona Cardinals (+11.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Sun, Oct 13, 4:25 PM ET

                Arizona had a good victory against the Panthers last week, and the 49ers defense has finally come around, getting an early pick six in their route of the Texans.  I think the 9ers will take this one down, but not by double digits against a potent Arizona offense that can punch in some garbage time touchdowns with some big plays.  San Fran still does not like having the game in the hands of Kapernick, so get ready for a heavy dosage of Frank Gore and clock management in a relatively low scoring game.

Pick: Arizona

Washington (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys - Sun, Oct 13, 8:30 PM ET

Dallas almost had a victory against the best team in the game last week, and don’t look for them to slow things down against their heated division rival from Washington.  RG3 has not lived up to the hype to say the least and I don’t trust this guy to throw a lot of touchdowns that aren’t against prevent defenses in garbage time.  Dallas is not going to be denied back to back weeks, and they should be able to cover up for one or two Romo mistakes as Griffin seems poised to make a couple of his own.

Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (+1.5) - Mon, Oct 14, 8:30 PM ET

                Last week’s victory by Luck and the Colts over the Seahawks showed me something and it also got Luck back on track throwing touchdowns.  San Diego can put up some points, but this team makes way too many mistakes to be considered a playoff contender, or a contender in this game for that matter.  Let’s go with the Colts on the road as I know Luck likes to play in California.

Pick: Indianapolis